A look back at Trade Tech China 2012

Written by Zennon Kapron || May 14 2012

It has been a few weeks since Tradetech China and it’s worth taking a look back at the event itself. Really in China, there are not too many capital markets focused events and WBResearch saw the opportunity and in 2010 setup Tradetech China.

Overview of the QDII program in China

Written by Helen Lin || April 05 2012

What is QDII

The QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) program was first launched in 2004 initially for insurance companies to invest their foreign exchange funds in the Chinese companies traded in overseas markets, with PingAn insurance company being the first institutional investor to receive a QDII quota of US$8.89 billion. Since then, the program has expanded and now allows institutional investors, including commercial banks, security companies, fund companies, insurance companies and trust funds to raise funds in mainland China and invest in offshore capital markets under the control of China’s foreign exchange regulator.

Further reform of China’s stock markets in 2012

Written by Helen Lin || March 12 2012

After being stuck in a bear market for the past few years, China’s stock market hasn't kept up with the country that has become the world’s second largest economy following the U.S.. Facing this bear stock market, Guo Shuqing, the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), seems confident in China’s stock market, saying that the blue chips in China’s stock market are of real value, although overhaul and reform are necessary now to move the market forward. He has raised several new ideas that may contribute to this needed reform.

On Feb 13, 2012, the government bond futures trading simulation was launched by the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFE). This is an indication that China is on the track to reintroduce the trading of government bond futures after the central government officially closed it 17 years ago in 1995.

In fact, China first launched government bond future trading in Dec. 1992, but then in 1995, the CSRC halted this market mainly due to a scandal surrounding the trading of the 327 contract. Besides the scandal, the number of bonds issued at that time could not support the large volume of futures trading, and there was insufficient market supervision to sustain a healthy government bond trading market.

In comparison, the situation now is totally different. The government bond balance of 6.3 trillion RMB, representing a steady increase in the volume of bonds issued, and the strong government bond market liquidity both support potential further development of government bond future trading. The CSRC has allowed about 10 institutions to participate in the trading simulation, including commercial banks, securities companies and future companies. Until now, the trading simulation has worked well.

The trading simulation may be a signal from the CSRC that it plans to re-launch the government bond futures, a major financial derivatives instrument. Compared with more developed markets, China’s market now lacks effective interest rate risk management tools, a situation inconsistent with possessing such a large volume of government bonds. The reintroduction of government bond future will allow financial institutions and industrial enterprises to better hedge against interest rate risk. However, when the government will re-launch the government bond futures still remains unknown. Keep in mind, it took 3 years for equity index future to get on the right track after nearly 3 years testing program.

Decline in HK RMB deposits a sign of things to come?

Written by Kapronasia || February 01 2012

Earlier this week the Hong Kong Monetary Authority published the December 2011 monetary statistics. Among all of the data, one interesting statistic stood out which was the decline in RMB deposits held in HK also called CNH.

We have talked about this trend in previous commentaries, but the relatively sharp decline could be an indicator of what is to come. One of the key reasons for the decline is no doubt the clarification by the Chinese government on the official procedures for bringing offshore RMB back onshore to be used in the onshore RMB or CNY market. 

The main official channel, which is just getting off the ground is the reverse QFII program or rQFII, but since the market was setup, there have been certain exceptions that have allowed offshore companies to bring money back onshore especially if the offshore company is a subsidiary of an onshore entity. Bank of China is one of the companies who was able to take advantage of this.

The offshore market still holds some appeal for Chinese corporates who are looking for loans or to raise money, but struggle to do so in the onshore market due to tighter credit conditions. The clearer rules about bringing CNH back onshore however make raising RMB in HK even more attractive. 

Yet, we expect that offshore RMB deposits will continue to slow or decline as more companies take advantage of the expanding channels to bring money back onshore and the RMB as a whole becomes less attractive due to the expected slower future appreciation of the currency.

On December 16th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) together issued the rules for the RQFII (RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) program and officially launched the RQFII programs in Hong Kong to enable qualified Hong Kong subsidiaries of fund management companies and securities firms to use their RMB funds raised in Hong Kong to invest in mainland securities.

Maintain stability and control risk

According to the rules, the maximum investment quota of RQFII programs is set at about 20 billion RMB, and at least 80 percent of RMB must be invest in fixed-income securities, while no more than 20 percent can be used for investment in stocks and equity funds. These restrictions on investment quota and portfolio reflect regulators’ concern with the adverse effect caused by excessive investment and their priority to keep the mainland financial market stable and to control risk.

As of April 2011, 16 securities firms and 9 fund management companies had Hong Kong subsidiaries which will be considered ‘qualified’ and included in the RQFII approvals in the future. Up to December 23rd, 9 fund management companies first gained the RQFII approves from CSRC, with their RQFII products launching next February at the soonest.

Impact of the RQFII Program

Compared with the total market capitalization of China’s A Share market and the rules that restrict the amount that can be invested in equities, the initial implementation of the program will likely have little near-term impact on the market. However, the latest statement from Guo Shuqing, the new chairman of the CSRC, clearly indicates that the CSRC is committed to encouraging long-term capital to flow into the stock market. The RQFII programs are another important part of this strategy as they will open another significant channel for overseas RMB funds to flow back into the mainland capital market.

The program will likely have a greater impact on HK markets as overseas RMB funds have to date had limited investment choices. Because of this, there will be quite a bit of demand for the RQFII program and likely the first batch of RQFII products will not meet investors’ demands. The 20 billion RMB investment quota will be increased in the future and the influx of capital through the RQFII will inevitably benefit to Chinese Stock in a long term.

As one of ways in which China make its currency to more international, the RQFII programs, by giving a green light to investment of overseas RMB funds in mainland securities markets, will not only make Chinese capital market more open but also facilitate off-shore RMB business by diversifying investment products for overseas RMB funds.

At first, regulators will tightly control the program as to ensure it does not expand too quickly, however, the authorities will continue to widen the investment channel of overseas RMB funds and making the RMB an international currency slowly will not change.

The annual highest level of economic conference in China, Central Economic Working Conference, which will suggest the direction of the country’s next-year economic policy, is just around the corner and this year is just the first year of China’s twelfth five-year plans.

The latest from the Euro-zone and China’s Economy

Written by Zennon Kapron || October 13 2011

The Chinese October holiday is just wrapping up here in China with millions of people returning from their home towns to major cities and getting back into work. The world markets haven’t been on holiday though and the teetering economic situation in Europe seem to be reaching a head.

Thoughts from Trade Tech China 2011

Written by Zennon Kapron || March 03 2011

Trade Tech came through Shanghai this week. It's only in the third year that Trade Tech has come to China, but it's clear that interest is growing as evidenced by an increasing number of attendees and exhibitors. Although there are few conferences in China concerning electronic trading, Trade Tech has managed to become one of the top events for sell sides and financial technology providers in China largely based on the claim from the event organizers that it represents one of the largest gatherings of buy-sides in China.

Luxury Chinese Rabbits

Written by Zennon Kapron || February 08 2011

China, for once, is relatively quiet – well in certain respects. Today, we’re nearly mid-way through the two week celebration of Chinese New Year as we move into the year of the rabbit. The streets for the past week have been somewhat quiet and offices were closed as millions of Chinese returned to their hometowns to celebrate the lunar calendar new year.

China’s Yuan Strategy in the Post-Crisis Era

Written by Elsa Yan || January 18 2011

After over thirty years of opening up and economic reform, in 2010, China officially overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economy, trailing only the United States. Undoubtedly, the global financial crisis that took hold in late 2008 has served as a turning point for China to rapidly transform itself into a global engine of growth.

Selling consumer data - how much is fair?

Written by Zennon Kapron || August 12 2010

Without a doubt when we look back at the year in review for 2010, one of the key industry issues of the year will be that of consumer data protection. With numerous breaches at some of the world’s largest banks and credit card institutions, it’s clear that data privacy and protection is still an issue – and one that is back on the front page this week.

China: The Balancing Act

Written by Kapronasia || October 14 2008

With both the Olympics and Para-Olympics now over and the vestiges of Olympic advertising slowly being removed from billboards around China, it is getting back to business as usual in China, or as usual as it could be. For awhile, the feeling was that the Chinese economy would come out of the Olympics, weather the credit crunch and continue on the path of the fantastic growth that China has experienced over the past 10 years. As the situation in the United States worsens, both as a result of the credit crisis and the worsening economic situation, that feeling is changing.

Bridging the Strait

Written by || August 04 2008

The government of the new Taiwanese President Ma Yingjeou has, over the past few weeks, taken a number of key steps towards financial services liberalization between Taiwan and the mainland that are pointing towards a more integrated financial sector. The two players have always been closely economically intertwined, but there have been many barriers in place that have prevented a more complete integration. Those barriers are now starting to come down.

 

China's Earthquake

Written by Kapronasia || May 22 2008

Taking a step away from financial services for a minute, I thought it fitting to give a view from China of what’s happening regarding China’s recent earthquake. In previous disasters like the SEA tsunami a few years ago or the recent typhoon in Myanmar, I've often found myself detached from the reality of the situation by geographical distance. Although once again I still am to a certain extent, as Shanghai is a distance from the epicenter of the quake, the quake and its aftermath have dominated life in China for the past week and a half.

China: Supporting the Markets

Written by Kapronasia || May 01 2008

2008 is turning out to be a another big year for the Shanghai stock market, not because of the bubble-like conditions or growth like what we saw in 2007, but for the changes in market regulations.

The Genie and the Giant

Written by Kapronasia || April 09 2008

The Citic / Bear Stearns fall-out is one example of many where proposed or actual tie-ups in China have changed as of late. Another prominent one is Yahoo and their arrangement with Alibaba, the largest B2B website in China. In August 2005, Yahoo invested US$1B for a 39 percent stake in Alibaba, who then agreed to run the Chinese operations of Yahoo. Now with Microsoft on the hunt for Yahoo, Alibaba wants to buy out the Yahoo stake and is looking for financing to do so.

Bear rumblings in Asia

Written by Kapronasia || March 27 2008

The collapse of Bear Sterns has not only changed the financial industry in the US, but it's also had a number of knock-on effects in Asia.

China 2008: What lies ahead - Part 3 of 3

Written by Kapronasia || January 22 2008

The Olympics

Amongst all of the events happening in China in 2008, without a doubt, the most important item on the Chinese agenda this year is the Beijing Olympics. Seen by both domestic and international observers as a key indication of China’s development, the Chinese government has spared no expense in preparing for the games.

China 2008: What lies ahead - Part 2 of 3

Written by Kapronasia || January 18 2008

A continued look at China in 2008.

China 2008: What lies ahead - Part 1 of 3

Written by Kapronasia || January 17 2008

Year 4706, the year of the rat, begins on February 7th in China this year. With the celebration just under a month away, it’s tempting to use the time to procrastinate on making predictions on what will happen in China is 2008 as it’s technically not the new year here yet, but unfortunately, China doesn’t wait.

Betting on the Dragon: Chinese investor behaviour

Written by Kapronasia || November 22 2007

The Shanghai stock market continues to defy expectations -- up nearly 100% in 2007. Most of the commentary on the Shanghai market depicts the average Chinese investor as unknowledgeable and following the herd. However, a recent study that we’ve (kapronasia) just completed with Amber (www.amberinsights.com) shows that individual Shanghai A-share investors are actually much more market savvy than commonly thought.

GE loses on Shenzhen Dev Bank - Karma doesn't work in China

Written by Kapronasia || October 24 2007

Two years ago in 2005, GE agreed to buy a 7% stake in Shenzhen Development Bank, which at the time was worth US$100M. However, the deal had been held up due due to disagreements amongst the shareholders, one of which was the private equity group TPG. Most of the disagreements centred around government requirements on share restructuring as the initial agreement would have significantly diluted TPG's stake in the bank. TPG eventually did agree to modified terms, but yesterday Shenzhen Bank terminated the agreement.

Bear in a China Shop

Written by Kapronasia || October 23 2007

Not to miss the ‘invest in China’ boat, yesterday, Bear Stearns and Citic Securities announced a co-investment partnership agreement. If everything is approved by the regulators, which it likely will be, Bear, the darling of the CDO market, will invest US$1B in the Chinese brokerage, which will convert to a 2% stake over 6 years with the option to increase that to 7%. Conversely, Citic will invest the same in Bear, which will convert to 6% stake in Bear over 40 years, and will have the option to increase this stake to 9.9%. Most of the non-Chinese operations will likely be a co-branded operation and it’s yet unclear what the Chinese operation will look like.

China: Stock Dormancy

Written by Kapronasia || October 18 2007

For the past few weeks, most of the major news in China has centred on the Communist Party Congress. This is an pretty important event in China that happens once every 5 years and usually results in a number of far-reaching policy and people changes throughout the country and government.

 

Dubai: If you build it...

Written by Kapronasia || October 03 2007

So whilst everyone was making final preparations for SIBOS this past weekend, I was in Dubai keeping good on a long standing promise to visit a friend.

China: Barbie and Goldman

Written by Kapronasia || September 26 2007

Lead Toys

With recall troubles dating back to 2005 when a toddler in the US ate a loose magnet and later died, the toy manufacture Mattel has been in the centre of a toy recall that has thousands of class-action lawyers around the world drooling. The company has gone through numerous recalls in the past few months, the largest being for 18 million playsets plagued by another loose magnet.

Singapore: Bubble? What bubble?

Written by Kapronasia || September 17 2007
On a recent trip to Singapore, I was shocked to see that the 3 bedroom flat that I used to rent with a few people in 2004 for SGP$2,100 was now renting for SGP$4,300. Just over double in 3 years. Now what becomes even more eye-opening is if you take the USD exchange rate fluctuations into account, for those of us still clinging to greenback savings, the rise is closer to 230%. Indeed, according to government statistics, the prices are continuing to rise: in Q2, rents rose 10% and private-home prices rose 8.3 percent, the fastest in 8 years. Now, that’s not so bad when you consider Singapore’s GDP grew a healthy 7.9 percent last year, but it is worrying nevertheless.

China: You can invest abroad...but not quite yet.

Written by Kapronasia || September 04 2007

China, well known for its capital controls made some steps towards loosening those controls for individual investors last month with the announcement that individual mainland Chinese investors would be able to invest in the HK stock market. However, now it appears the implementation will be another few days or weeks off according to an announcement by the Bank of China (BOC).

China - subprimed or not?

Written by Kapronasia || August 28 2007

Reading Bank of China’s ticker last week was a crash course in China’s stock markets. Towards the end of last week, the bank reported on its sub-prime exposure. On the next trading day, if you were given the two ticker symbols for Bank of China (BOC) and their positions, you’d be hard pressed to guess what BOC’s actual position was. In HK, BOC fell by as much as 5.4% over the course of the trading day*, while in Shanghai, the stock actually rose 1% on a day when the entire market rose 5% overall. What happened?

 

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