Recently, a WTO dispute panel, in response to the recent US complaint, said China is breaking the WTO rules by maintaining CUP as a monopoly supplier for the clearing of certain types of RMB-denominated payment card transactions. The specific areas where the panel determined that China had discriminated against foreign bank card suppliers are that 1) China requires all payment cards issued in China to work with the CUP network and to carry its logo, and 2) China forces all payment terminals to accept CUP network.
If you remember from our previous commentaries, in 2011, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) mandated that any company providing payment products or services be licensed in order to operate. This brought a much needed dose of regulation to what was previously quite an unregulated industry. Since then, 4 rounds of payment licenses have been approved, the last being on June 28th, when another 95 payment companies qualified to provide payment products and services in China.
According to public information on the official website of Jumio, this fast-growing payment and online ID verification company based in California will be announcing additional deals with customers in Asia later this year. This is a signal for the firm’s ambition and interest in entering the Asian online payment markets, among which China is of significant importance.
BlackRock recently announced the view that emerging stock markets such as China which have underperformed till early this year, are set to take off in the second half of 2012 thanks to the strong economic growth, slowing inflation, less volatility, and cheaper valuation.
According to PBOC (the People’s Bank of China), driven by the proliferation of online banking in China, in 2011 the total online payment transaction value reached 700 trillion RMB, with a 33% growth rate.
On June 16th, 2012, China Telecom, one of three mobile network operations in China, announced that its total mobile payment transaction value in 2012 researched 17 billion RMB, already exceeding the total amount of last year.
Recently Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission, the main financial regulator, said it had approved applications submitted by Bank of China and Bank of Communications to establish branches in Taipei. The banks will only be allowed to engage in limited business in the country, e.g. can only accept deposits higher than NT$3 million (US$100,350), only provide corporate loans. Further, the banks will need to receive approval from Taiwan's central bank if they wish to engage in f/x.
We have talked about this before, but the latest chart from Reuters / BOC HK is another indication that demand for RMB denominated bonds in HK is waning as yield is creeping up once again. This is creating a bit of a knock-on effect as the cost of financing through RMB bonds rises making traditional USD bonds more attractive. We expect this to continue for the rest of the year actually as there are no near-term events that we are expecting that would change the trajectory or somehow make RMB more attractive.
According to China’s Credit Card Report of 2011, the total number of credit card reached 290 million and the total value of consumption by credit card was 4.1 trillion RMB in 2011, accounting for 22.6% of China’s total retail sales of consumer goods. In recent years, credit card consumption has experienced rapid growth benefiting increased consumer consumption as well as improvements in convenience and security.
According to China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of May 2012, the number of Qualified Foreign Institution Investors reached 141, and the total investment quota of QFII reached 26 billion USD. The latest news from China’s securities authorities showed that the QFII investment quota would be increased to 80 billion USD.
According to China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of April 2012, the total QDII investment quota reached 76.4 billion USD, and the number of Qualified Domestic Institution Investors reached 98. The institutions consist of fund management companies, insurance companies, commercial banks, securities companies and trusts. Among them, fund companies' quota represented 56.1% of the total quota, reaching 42.9 billion USD. Insurance companies accounted for 26.3% or 20.1 billion USD, commercial banks were 12.4% and 9.5 billion USD. Securities companies could invest 2.2 billion USD, the proportion was 2.9%. The proportion of trust company was the minimum about 2.3%, reached 1.8 billion USD. From the above, we can see Funds and insurances held the dominant position in the total quota.
The RQFII (RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) program, launched in December 2011, allows qualified investors to invest yuan-based funds raised in Hong Kong in the mainland securities market within a permitted quota. According to China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), as of the end of January 2012, there are 21 financial institutions that have received RQFII qualification and the total quota reached 20 billion RMB. Among them, funds companies and securities companies each accounted for 50%. The latest news from China’s securities regulators indicates that the RQFII investment quota will be further increased to 50 billion RMB in the future, and that the authorities would further enlarge the pilot area and the number of qualified investors.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods reached 18 trillion RMB and the number of online Shopping users reached 194 million. At the same time, in 2011, China’s Online Shopping Market reached 773.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 55.3%. The transaction value of China’s Online Shopping Market contributed 4.3% to the total retail sales of consumer goods, continuing to grow in importance to the overall retail sales market.
According to the latest China’s Payment Report from People’s Bank of China, up to 2012 Q1, the total number of bank card in circulation grew 5.2% quarterly to 3.1 billion, reaching about 2 bank cards per person. Among them, the total number of credit cards reached 290 million, an increase of 1.8% from end of 2011Q4.
According to Eguan, a China-based consulting company, the total transaction value of China’s 3rd Party Online Payment market reached 758.3 billion RMB in the first quarter of 2012.
The quarterly growth rate declined because of seasonal factors and the influence of the holiday - especially because online shopping and air travel which accounts for the largest part of the total online payment market; both declined rapidly in the first quarter.
It has been a few weeks since Tradetech China and it’s worth taking a look back at the event itself. Really in China, there are not too many capital markets focused events and WBResearch saw the opportunity and in 2010 setup Tradetech China.
In recent years, Chinese banking sector profits have skyrocketed to new levels, in part due to the Beijing imposed ceiling on the rates banks pay depositors, providing banks with a source of cheap funds, which banks then in turn lend out at much higher rates. Net profits for commercial banks grew 36 percent last year, reaching 1 trillion Renminbi. Chinese banks are enjoying year-on-year rises of more than 30 percent in their first-half net profits. In one example, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s fees and commission income for the year 2011 was close to 100 billion RMB, compared to 72 billion in 2010 and 55 billion in 2009.
The Chinese mobile payment market is virtually doubling in size every year and is expected to be worth more than US$80 billion with 441 million active users by 2015, according to the latest report from Kapronasia. China has already overtaken the US as the largest smartphone market in the world; the number of mobile payment users will dwarf other markets worldwide.
Since the first QDII quota of US$500 million was allocated to the HuaAn fund in 2006, the quota allocated to security companies and fund companies has maintained steady growth. As of the end of February 2012, US$44.4 billion of investment quota was allocated to fund companies and security companies, compared to US$44.4 billion and US$40.6 billion for 2011 and 2010.
On March 28, 2012, Trunkbow, a provider of Mobile Payment services in China, announced that it has teamed up with CUP (China Union Pay, the only bankcard switch in China) for the development and deployment of a mobile online-to-offline payment system which will be launch in Q2 2012.
In recent years, since Chinese banks have been working on data consolidation at the national level, the establishment of disaster recovery systems has become one of the key considerations for banks. Today, banks must ensure the stability and security of their national data center in the event of a disaster to ensure uninterrupted business operation through disaster recovery systems.
According to IDC’s report “China Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Market Forecast, 2008-2013, data disaster recovery service and business continuity in China is expected to become the fastest growing segment in the local IT service market during 2008-2013, with a CAGR of 52%.
The importance of disaster recovery systems has pushed the Chinese government to formulate a series of industry standards. In June 2009, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a new guideline on IT Risk Management of Commercial Banks, which has set a higher standard for the information security and business continuity of the entire life cycle of banking IT.
In 2011, China’s regulators also urged local banks to speed up the implementation of disaster recovery systems during the 12th Five-Year Period, by proposing a disaster recovery model named “Two Places and Three Centers”, which specifies a main data center, a remote disaster recovery center, and an intra-city emergency disaster recovery center.
In response to the legislation, recently, more local banks have started building their own “Two Places and Three Centers”. Large domestic banks have been seen allocating more resources to develop the disaster recovery model and already built large disaster recovery centers. The Agricultural Bank of China initiated its Shanghai remote disaster recovery center in 2012; China Construction Bank will complete the establishment of its Beijing data center in 2013. Even though they are somewhat behind the larger banks, small and medium banks have identified “Two Places and Three Centers” as one of their key IT investment priorities in the future.
In 2012, we expect that local small and medium sized banks will lead the demand for disaster recovery systems, particularly for joint stock commercial banks and city commercial banks, as they seek national expansions in their next phase of growth. With increased operating risks, banks have begun to put more value on the benefits brought by disaster recovery systems, which will be key to ensure uninterrupted business operation and improve risk management capability. This trend is also likely to be seen in local insurance and securities sector, where more small and medium sized insurers, securities firms and fund companies will invest in disaster recovery systems.
Compared to self-built disaster recovery centers, outsourcing services on disaster recovery will be much more popular among these companies, as the latter can provide lower investments, shorter construction period and higher service standards; the local market for disaster recovery system is still dominated by global players represented by IBM, HP, Symantec and EMC.
The QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) program was first launched in 2004 initially for insurance companies to invest their foreign exchange funds in the Chinese companies traded in overseas markets, with PingAn insurance company being the first institutional investor to receive a QDII quota of US$8.89 billion. Since then, the program has expanded and now allows institutional investors, including commercial banks, security companies, fund companies, insurance companies and trust funds to raise funds in mainland China and invest in offshore capital markets under the control of China’s foreign exchange regulator.
As China’s financial institutions continue to invest more money in information technology innovation to help them maintain strong growth and a competitive edge, foreign vendors expect enormous opportunities and are scrambling to enter this dynamic market.
However, when a foreign vendor and its local partner want to implement a new solution, both of them may face a dilemma or, specifically speaking, a real problem, in that China’s financial standardization lags behind the relatively rapid development of the financial industry globally and has yet to meet the demands of technology innovation and business expansion. This can slow the pace of technology advancement as competing standards add layers of complexity and make it more difficult to come up with straightforward technology solutions to clients’ problems. The PBOC has realized that financial standardization does and will continue to play a pivotal role in financial informationization and regards standardization work as an important strategic measure to promote China’s financial industry.
The China Finance Standardization Technical Committee (CFSTC), established by the PBOC and other financial institutions, shoulders the responsibility to draft and revise financial standards relating to banking, insurance, security and printing, and it also promotes the adoption of new standards in China. As of the end of 2011, CFSTC had issued 151 financial standards covering fundamental data elements, code, interface standards, terminology, messages, data, financial instrument designs, and parameters in printing technology. These standards have been successfully implemented in various financial areas such as bankcard, Internet Banking, accounting, treasury, information security and financial IC card.
Take for example the ISO 20022 standard, a universal financial industry message format. Since China has become a member of WTO, the scope of China’s financial institutions’ business has become much more international than before. However, incompatible financial message formats increase the cost of international transactions and impede efficient global bank connectivity, so the PBOC has already urged China’s local banks to adopt the ISO 20022 financial message standard and, at the end of 2011, CFSTC also issued the ISO 20022 standards which will be officially implemented in May, 2012.
We can expect that local banks will obtain numerous benefits from the implementation of ISO 20022 in China including the reduction of transaction costs and improvement of risk control. Vendors, of course, will be happy to help banks upgrade their cash management, treasury and payment systems.
Although progress has been made, China’s financial standardardization still faces many problems and challenges:
As China becomes further integrated into global financial markets and reformation of domestic financial markets continues during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period, the authorities realize that they should continue pushing financial standardization and, more importantly, participating more actively in the drafting of international standards. By submitting its own proposals for international financial standards, China wants to strengthen its competitive edge in global financial markets.
Although it seems difficult for China to exert influence on international financial standards over the relatively short period of time that China’s markets have been developing, CFSTC will keep tracking and learning international standards first and promote indigenous innovation at the same time. In the future, we will likely see some of China’s own financial standards become international standards.
A sizeable portion of Chinese customers are willing to try new methods that may offer them increased convenience over the current need to go to the branch for any problems. Due to the sluggish pace of personal banking in China, consumers have shown added interest in electronic services that will shorten the time they spend in any bank branch. Chinese consumers have also expressed interest in using the internet more in finding out about new products and services as well as using the internet more in addressing account problems.
Among the report’s insights, was the finding that in both the United States and China, a low level of trust in system security remains a considerable obstacle for the integration of social media in banking. Although Chinese consumers seem to be slightly less sceptical than their American counterparts, both groups are unconvinced that social media is a safe route through which banking transactions can be conducted. Although if consumer confidence can be instilled in the safety as well as the privacy factors in social media, both groups would welcome a more technologically advanced system since they believe social media can make their banking experience more expedient and convenient.
With hundreds of millions of individuals in both China and the United States partaking in social media activity each and every day, possibilities of combining social media with other aspects of life are constantly being discovered and experimented with. The key to a successful implementation is the correct assessment of the public’s level of readiness before taking swift action to modernize.
Kapronasia’s latest report “Social Media and Banking in China” takes a comprehensive look at how social media will change the personal banking landscape in China as well as the attitude both American and Chinese consumers hold toward the use of social media in the future. This report, the first of its kind in examining the realm of social media and banking in China, lends many key insights critical to understanding the thoughts and actions of Chinese consumers. These and other findings will be discussed in detail during a Kapronasia webinar on the Social Media and Banking in China” report in early April.
After being stuck in a bear market for the past few years, China’s stock market hasn't kept up with the country that has become the world’s second largest economy following the U.S.. Facing this bear stock market, Guo Shuqing, the new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), seems confident in China’s stock market, saying that the blue chips in China’s stock market are of real value, although overhaul and reform are necessary now to move the market forward. He has raised several new ideas that may contribute to this needed reform.
On Feb 13, 2012, the government bond futures trading simulation was launched by the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFE). This is an indication that China is on the track to reintroduce the trading of government bond futures after the central government officially closed it 17 years ago in 1995.
In fact, China first launched government bond future trading in Dec. 1992, but then in 1995, the CSRC halted this market mainly due to a scandal surrounding the trading of the 327 contract. Besides the scandal, the number of bonds issued at that time could not support the large volume of futures trading, and there was insufficient market supervision to sustain a healthy government bond trading market.
In comparison, the situation now is totally different. The government bond balance of 6.3 trillion RMB, representing a steady increase in the volume of bonds issued, and the strong government bond market liquidity both support potential further development of government bond future trading. The CSRC has allowed about 10 institutions to participate in the trading simulation, including commercial banks, securities companies and future companies. Until now, the trading simulation has worked well.
The trading simulation may be a signal from the CSRC that it plans to re-launch the government bond futures, a major financial derivatives instrument. Compared with more developed markets, China’s market now lacks effective interest rate risk management tools, a situation inconsistent with possessing such a large volume of government bonds. The reintroduction of government bond future will allow financial institutions and industrial enterprises to better hedge against interest rate risk. However, when the government will re-launch the government bond futures still remains unknown. Keep in mind, it took 3 years for equity index future to get on the right track after nearly 3 years testing program.
According to a study released by research firm Analysys International, in Q4 2011 online payments in China reached USD 117.3 billion, up by 30.9 percent from Q3 2011. The growth was largely down to an increasing demand for online shopping, travel booking and gaming. Alipay, an affiliate of Alibaba Group, took 46 percent of the total online payments, while internet company Tencent took about 25%. Government support for new market participants also helped growth as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) granted over 70 new licenses to non-financial organizations engaged in payment and settlement businesses in 2011 bringing the total to more than 100 licensees.
Earlier this week the Hong Kong Monetary Authority published the December 2011 monetary statistics. Among all of the data, one interesting statistic stood out which was the decline in RMB deposits held in HK also called CNH.
We have talked about this trend in previous commentaries, but the relatively sharp decline could be an indicator of what is to come. One of the key reasons for the decline is no doubt the clarification by the Chinese government on the official procedures for bringing offshore RMB back onshore to be used in the onshore RMB or CNY market.
The main official channel, which is just getting off the ground is the reverse QFII program or rQFII, but since the market was setup, there have been certain exceptions that have allowed offshore companies to bring money back onshore especially if the offshore company is a subsidiary of an onshore entity. Bank of China is one of the companies who was able to take advantage of this.
The offshore market still holds some appeal for Chinese corporates who are looking for loans or to raise money, but struggle to do so in the onshore market due to tighter credit conditions. The clearer rules about bringing CNH back onshore however make raising RMB in HK even more attractive.
Yet, we expect that offshore RMB deposits will continue to slow or decline as more companies take advantage of the expanding channels to bring money back onshore and the RMB as a whole becomes less attractive due to the expected slower future appreciation of the currency.
One of the most interesting parts of doing market research in China is learning about the innovative ways of doing business. A few weekends ago the fracas over the China launch of the iPhone 4S at the Apple store in Beijing got me thinking. If you haven’t followed the story, basically, the store was meant to open in the morning and people had queued all night for a chance to buy one of the new phones. The store eventually never opened that day with Apple citing staff safety concerns much to the ire of the people who had braved the cold.
If you look at pictures and reports of the event, it’s clear that many of the people who were queuing and waiting were not necessarily the typical iPhone user. Many of them are in fact what are called huangnius (yellow cows) who are the scalpers who buy the iPhone 4S at retail for about US$790 (as compared to US$650 in the US for a 4S 16GB unlocked) and then sell it on the gray market for a 20%+ markup.
Huangnius are not just limited to electronics though. Actually the first that I had heard about them was when I arrived to shanghai a number of years ago and wanted to exchange RMB for USD. You can go through the banks, but as the currency is capital controlled, you are limited to how much you can convert. No limits to the amount of RMB the huangniu will buy though, of course you’ll have to take his rates, but if you need the USD, you need the USD. The award for best business model though, has to go to the huangniu that are involved in the pre-paid card industry.
As we discussed in previous commentaries, pre-paid cards in China are very popular and are often given by companies as part of an annual bonus to their employees. A key part of that equation are the ‘fapiao’ or official invoices that they receive for the cards. In order to account costs in China, you need to have an official fapiao that is submitted to the tax authorities to show that you actually did incur an expense and aren’t just faking invoices. There are of course ways that companies counterfeit fapiao or buy actual fapiao, but that is a whole separate subject.
Back to the prepaid cards and the huangniu, so in the west, there are of course a number of companies that will give you money today for your money tomorrow. Similarly, the huangniu openly purchase pre-paid cards. So let’s go through how this whole process works:
A large company, let’s call it ACME, will purchase a number of prepaid cards from a prepaid card issuer such as a large retail store chain for typically what is the actual face value of the card, let’s say 1000 rmb (renminbi or rmb for short is another name for Chinese Yuan; 1000rmb is about US$150). ACME will pay the issuer and receive the official receipts (fa piao) from the issuer and be able to claim either as a business or salary expense depending on ACME’s accounting and then will give the cards to their employees as part of their annual bonus or just as part of their regular compensation.
Now, say the prepaid card is only good at the issuer’s store and the ACME employee who received the card rarely shops at that store, or just really needs the money right away. They can then contact a huangniu who, if it is a popular kind of prepaid card, will buy it off the ACME employee for a certain percentage of the original value, let’s say 800 rmb in this case. The huangniu at that point has a number of options including reselling it to an individual consumer who might be interested in the card for say 900rmb, thus making a 100rmb profit. This makes a lot of sense, and when it was explained to me, wasn’t surprising.
What was surprising to me in this case is that the huangniu will sometimes sell it back to the issuer themselves. So think about this, the issuer has sold the card for 1000 rmb and immediately that becomes a liability for the company (similar to a loan for a bank) as the user can then use that card to purchase goods. Not trying to make things overly simple here, but what the issuer would love is that the users never in fact use the cards and they expire along with their complete value. That 1000rmb suddenly moves from being a liability to a cash asset. If that isn’t possible, the issuer would want to get the most value back from the card as possible.
So to do that, the issuer will actually buy the unused card from the huangniu at a slight discount. So in this case, say it was 900rmb. So the issuer has cleared off 1000rmb of liabilities for 900rmb and everyone in the ‘value chain’ is happy. The issuer is happy as they make a tidy profit and are then able to reissue the card at the same 1000rmb value which accelerates the ‘velocity’ of the card in the market so that it appears more popular. ACME is happy because they have compensated their employees and have received official receipts which they can then deduct from their tax bill. Employees are happy because they have 800rmb in cash. Huangniu are happy because typically the sellers are buyers of these cards are fixed which means steady regular and predictable profits.
The values used here are just examples. From others in the industry it seems that these arrangements happen for as little as a 1rmb discount on each card. So the huangniu will buy the card for 99rmb instead of 100rmb and then sell it for 99.5 rmb or similar. Even with such a small discount, they still manage to make huge profits through volume.
The key takeaway from all of this is that China is developing rapidly and many of the regulations in and around the finanancial services industry are somewhat vague and often allow for loopholes similar to the model I laid out above. These inevitably will be sorted out in the future, but for now, it is another example of the inventiveness of the market players and the lack of specific regulations preventing what is essentially a huge tax dodge and license to print money.
On December 31st, New Year’s eve, the PBOC finally issued another 61 third-party payment licenses which probably were the best holiday gifts for the third-party payment companies who had been waiting for the new licenses.
On December 16th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) together issued the rules for the RQFII (RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) program and officially launched the RQFII programs in Hong Kong to enable qualified Hong Kong subsidiaries of fund management companies and securities firms to use their RMB funds raised in Hong Kong to invest in mainland securities.
According to the rules, the maximum investment quota of RQFII programs is set at about 20 billion RMB, and at least 80 percent of RMB must be invest in fixed-income securities, while no more than 20 percent can be used for investment in stocks and equity funds. These restrictions on investment quota and portfolio reflect regulators’ concern with the adverse effect caused by excessive investment and their priority to keep the mainland financial market stable and to control risk.
As of April 2011, 16 securities firms and 9 fund management companies had Hong Kong subsidiaries which will be considered ‘qualified’ and included in the RQFII approvals in the future. Up to December 23rd, 9 fund management companies first gained the RQFII approves from CSRC, with their RQFII products launching next February at the soonest.
Compared with the total market capitalization of China’s A Share market and the rules that restrict the amount that can be invested in equities, the initial implementation of the program will likely have little near-term impact on the market. However, the latest statement from Guo Shuqing, the new chairman of the CSRC, clearly indicates that the CSRC is committed to encouraging long-term capital to flow into the stock market. The RQFII programs are another important part of this strategy as they will open another significant channel for overseas RMB funds to flow back into the mainland capital market.
The program will likely have a greater impact on HK markets as overseas RMB funds have to date had limited investment choices. Because of this, there will be quite a bit of demand for the RQFII program and likely the first batch of RQFII products will not meet investors’ demands. The 20 billion RMB investment quota will be increased in the future and the influx of capital through the RQFII will inevitably benefit to Chinese Stock in a long term.
As one of ways in which China make its currency to more international, the RQFII programs, by giving a green light to investment of overseas RMB funds in mainland securities markets, will not only make Chinese capital market more open but also facilitate off-shore RMB business by diversifying investment products for overseas RMB funds.
At first, regulators will tightly control the program as to ensure it does not expand too quickly, however, the authorities will continue to widen the investment channel of overseas RMB funds and making the RMB an international currency slowly will not change.
According to PBOC, in 2011 Q3, China’s payment system processed 3.9 billion transaction volumes amounting to 510 trillion RMB. HVPS volume keeps a rapid 35% growth rate year on year; BEPS volume especially online inter-bank clearing, has increased at phenomenal rate, mainly driven by faster growth in the area of online petty expense payments.
Payment System Transaction Volume Contribution %, 2011 Q3
Payment System Transaction Value Contribution %, 2011 Q3
High-Value Payment System
Bulk Electronic Payments System
Intra-city Bill Clearing System
China Foreign Exchange Payment System
Intra-bank Transaction Settlement System
CUP Inter-bank Clearing System
According to EnfoDesk Research, China’s third-party online payment total transaction value reached 88.9 million dollar in 2011 Q3, with 22.4% growth rate quarter on quarter, keeping a high-speed increase. After PBOC officially released third-party payment licenses in September, main players accelerate the speed of their market expansion and make the market more competitive.
Based on numerous conversations with clients and industry participants, we have finalised and published Kapronasia's 2012 Banking research calendar.