Financial Industry Blog - Kapronasia

In a growing number of countries, stablecoins appear here to stay. DeFiLlama data show that the total market capitalization for stablecoins has risen 46% this year to a new high of roughly US$190 billion, cementing a remarkable comeback from the nadir the cryptocurrencies experienced following the implosion of TerraUSD in 2022. Yet two of the world’s largest economies and its two largest by population remain wary of stablecoins. How China and India ultimately choose to approach stablecoins could have significant implications for their broader adoption.

Thailand’s Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) is among the most proactive lenders in Southeast Asia when it comes to digital finance. It recently has started on work on a Thai baht stablecoin project and is setting up a digital bank in Thailand together with South Korea’s Kakao Bank.

We remember when Swedish payments firm Klarna was valued at US$46 billion back in June 2021. Unsurprisingly, leading the charge in funding the company was SoftBank, which has a tendency to make losing bets on tech startups. At the time, investors were ecstatic about buy now, pay later (BNPL), which we have long seen as old wine in a new bottle. There is nothing particularly innovative about installment payments, and it was not long before banks and tech giants like PayPal moved into the space. Since there is little differentiation between different providers of BNPL services, it was no surprise that Klarna’s valuation plummeted, finally bottoming out at US$6.5 billion. Analysts have recently turned more bullish on the company though and it is valued at US$14.6 billion ahead of an expected IPO in New York next year.

It was not long ago that Viva Republica CEO Lee Seung-gun praised South Korea’s fintech market and financial regulators. “Korea is a market where fintech companies can build their foundational strength for overseas expansion,” he said in September at Korea Investment Week in Seoul. “There is no country where the government leads financial innovation as much as Korea,” he added. And yet Viva Republica seems to have decided against an IPO on the Korea Stock Exchange (KRX). Instead, it is likely to go public in the United States, according to several Korean media reports.

We recently wrote about the implications of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) possibly exiting the mBridge cross-border CBDC project it has overseen, but we did not expect the Switzerland-based entity would make its decision so soon. On October 31, BIS announced its departure from mBridge, and on Nov. 11 published an update on its official website stating that the initiative had reached the minimum viable product (MVP) stage. There was no explanation given for why BIS exited mBridge and no details provided about next steps for the project.

Given that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has recently taken a pro-cryptocurrency stance, it was only a matter of time before someone prominent in the digital assets community found a way to spin it as positively affecting the China crypto market. Never mind that Trump is known for his mercurial nature and has only spoken about crypto in the most general terms. In this case, it is HashKey Group chairman and CEO Xiao Feng who is espousing such a viewpoint.

South Korea’s K Bank had a strong third quarter during which its net income surged almost 181% annually to 37 billion won (US$26.3 million). Through September, the online lender had accrued profits of 122.4 billion won, up 220% from the first nine months of 2023. K Bank’s customer numbers are rising steadily as well, reaching 12 million by the end of September, thanks to strong demand for high-interest rate deposits, cashback programs and mortgage loans. There was really no bad news in K Bank’s earnings report, but the lender still faces significant challenges due to its close ties with the cryptocurrency exchange Upbit and its general high reliance on digital assets to fuel growth.

Brazil’s Nubank had a strong third quarter in which its adjusted net profit reached US$592 million, beating the US$559 million expected by the London Stock Exchange Group. The Brazilian online lender’s annualized non-adjusted return on equity, a measure of profitability, reached a record 30%. According to Reuters, the profitability increase can be attributed to more active customers and higher average revenue per active customer. During the September quarter, Nubank reached 100 million customers in Brazil, a number that represents 57% of the adult population in the country.

What happened to the digital rupee? With each passing week, it seems that India’s CBDC project is fading further into the background of the subcontinent’s financial ecosystem. In contrast to China, which is unswervingly pressing forward with the digital renminbi – irrespective of actual market demand, it should be noted – India’s financial regulators seem uncertain if they really want a digital fiat currency.

This is the first blog in our series on Digital Asset Custody, in partnership with Ripple.

Singapore has become one of the two most important financial centers in Asia alongside Hong Kong and the region’s top fintech hub. Yet Singapore’s strengths as a financial center do not extend to capital markets. In this segment, it is one of the weakest performers in the region. This has been consistently true in recent years, despite efforts to improve the situation.

South Korea has long had an enthusiastic cryptocurrency investing community. Over the past 18 months, that community has grown briskly. Data compiled by South Korean regulators show that the number of crypto investors in the country increased 21% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 to 7.78 million, which is about 15% of the South Korea population of 52 million. During the same period, the average daily trading volume of cryptocurrencies jumped 67% to 6 trillion won while the market value of cryptocurrencies in South Korea rose 27% to 55.3 trillion won.

Ever since the China-led central bank digital currency project mBridge was launched several years ago, there have been whispers that its ultimate goal was to develop an alternative payments rail that could circumvent the U.S.-dominated international financial system. That is because mBridge aims to establish direct links between the central banks of its participants, allowing money to be sent outside of the existing correspondent banking system. It was primarily the involvement of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in mBridge that gave the project an appearance of neutrality. Yet with the news that BIS is considering shutting down the project, it seems clear the CBDC cross-border payments initiative cannot be separated from geopolitical tensions.

Ant Group and Globe-backed Mynt, which operates the e-wallet GCash, has been on a winning streak. Long one of the Philippines’ most valuable startups, its valuation jumped to US$5 billion in August – more than doubling its previous valuation of US$2 billion that it reached in 2021 – following a combined US$800 million capital injection from Japan’s MUFG and the Philippine conglomerate Ayala.

South Korea’s No. 2 digital bank K Bank has postponed its IPO plans yet again, after seemingly having committed to a listing in the near future. This development comes as something of a surprise. K Bank posted a net profit of 85.4 billion won (US$64 million) in the first half of this year, the highest since its establishment and more than thrice as much as during the same period a year ago. It seemed that the company had adequate momentum to finally go public. However, looking at a few aspects of K Bank’s business model, we can see why it is delaying the IPO again.

For nearly 3 ½ years, the Philippines has been on the gray list of The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which assessed the Southeast Asian country to have inadequate money-laundering and counterterrorism financing controls. Since then, the Philippines has been working to improve those controls so that it can be removed from the list, which is detrimental to the country’s business environment. Its next opportunity to be removed from the list will be in February 2025.

Hong Kong’s financial regulators and at least some in the industry seem to believe that the city’s future as a financial hub depends on its embrace of cryptocurrency. For the past two years, Hong Kong has been relentlessly pitching itself as a digital assets hub in an effort to regain ground lost to Singapore and mainland China. The city-state has emerged as a larger and more important fintech hub, while mainland Chinese stock exchanges are attracting companies to list that might have once chosen to go public in Hong Kong. While it can be argued that Hong Kong would be better served by focusing less on an industry that remains problematic in many respects, its big bet on crypto might end up paying off big.

Walmart-backed PhonePe is one of India’s most prominent fintech startups, perhaps the best known after Paytm. With the backing of the retail chain juggernaut, which owns 85% of the company, PhonePe does not seem to face the same kind of pressure for an exit as startups dependent on venture capitalists. That means PhonePe can afford to wait until its financials are in good shape before going public. And in the 2024 fiscal year, PhonePe made important progress in that direction: Its losses were trimmed 28% to 20 billion rupees while revenue from operations surged 74% to 50.6 billion rupees.

Massive hype about central bank digital currencies – and in particular the retail segment – has not translated to widescale adoption in Asia. This is particularly notable in the region’s two largest economies and nations by population: China and India. Yet while retail users have limited interest in digital fiat currencies in China and India, they are flocking to Cambodia’s Project Bakong, which surpassed 10 million accounts (60% of Cambodia’s population) in December 2023. The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) jointly developed Bakong with the Japanese blockchain technology startup Soramitsu, launching it in October 2020.

More than five years after Hong Kong regulators first announced they would allow digital banks, the online lenders are performing modestly at best – and in some cases, not well at all. The argument that introducing digital banks would somehow alter the competitive landscape of banking in the city and put heavy pressure on incumbent lenders seems increasingly unrealistic. After all, incumbent heavyweights like HSBC and Standard Chartered have long been investing heavily in digitization. Yet both the banks and regulators have been reluctant to acknowledge underlying problems.

2024 may ultimately be remembered as the year when Paytm’s regulatory travails got real. Ever since the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) effectively forced the shutdown of the company’s payments bank earlier this year, Paytm has been endeavoring to convince investors it has a viable way forward. In some ways, the company is paying the price for an earlier stage of undisciplined growth that strayed from its core payments business and burned cash without delivering significant business breakthroughs.

On October 22, Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) revoked the business license of peer-to-peer lender Investree and ordered it to shut down all operations. The OJK’s decision deals a potentially lethal blow to the troubled P2P lender, which has been unable to recover from severe fraud allegations against its founder and former CEO, as well as legal challenges from lenders. While the OJK’s action was technically triggered by Investree’s inability to meet a minimum equity requirement of 7.5 billion rupiah, the biggest underlying issue is the alleged criminal behavior by former CEO Adrian Gunadi, who is believed to be outside of Indonesia right now.

Viva Republica’s Toss Bank has been visibly contemplating an initial public offering (IPO) since earlier this year. It is aiming to achieve a valuation of 15 to 20 trillion won (US$11 billion-US$15 billion). Toss is feeling increasingly good about going public because of what it sees as strong fundamentals. It has amassed more than 19.1 million monthly active users, while its loan brokerage, payments, advertising and tax services are performing well, as is its subsidiary Toss Securities.

Hong Kong’s capital markets have had a tough couple of years. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) closed 2023 as the worst performing exchange in the world. HKEX plunged 24%, erasing US$13 billion in market capitalization, according to Bloomberg. Unsurprisingly, IPO activity was tepid in Hong Kong last year, and remained that way up until a flurry of listings in recent months that suggested a turnaround in market sentiment.

With one of the world’s largest unbanked populations, Pakistan is one of Asia’s last major nascent fintech markets. Yet in 2023 and through the first half of 2024, it was mired in a funding slump – not unusual given the broader global trend, but problematic for a country that truly needs more digital banking services to boost financial inclusion. In the 2023 fiscal year, fintech funding in Pakistan fell 80% to just US$20 million while the number of deals decreased 44% to just eight. However, 2024 could turn out to be a better year for funding given rising investor interest.

Ant Group’s global expansion is continuing apace. According to data compiled by the Chinese payments giant, the number of travelers using their home payment apps via Ant’s Alipay+ app tripled from January to September, while spending at food and beverage outlets, attractions and ride sharing/taxis rose by 80%, 50% and 120% respectively.

The last few years have witnessed a rapidly evolving cross-border payment landscape in Asia Pacific. Across the region, financial institutions and FinTechs have made significant headway in areas like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and real-time payments.

However, several challenges remain that impede further progress. Potential CBDC fragmentation, legacy systems, and rising digital fraud pose difficulties. As 2025 approaches, regulators, financial institutions, and FinTechs must understand three key gaps and address them.

On October 4, Singapore’s Inter-Ministerial Committee announced new anti-money laundering (AML) recommendations. They include data sharing between agencies, flagging and striking off inactive companies, and programs to educate businesses about suspicious activity and increase the likelihood that they report such activity.

For many years, the China payments market was an oligopoly with state-owned UnionPay dominating the cards segment while Alipay and Tenpay together held about 90% of mobile payments. These three companies are still far bigger than any of their competitors, but Beijing has in recent years gradually begun improving market access for foreign firms amid a challenging economic environment. It is against this backdrop that PayPal has been steadily ratcheting up its presence in China, most recently with the launch of a service – PayPal Complete Payments – that allows Chinese merchants to accept foreign credit cards and mobile payments.

The Indian government has long eyed cryptocurrencies warily, viewing them largely as contributing to money-laundering risk and challenging the central bank’s monetary authority. Though India has stopped short of outright banning digital assets – or a de facto ban like what China has – it has nonetheless made investing in them smoothly a challenging process – especially the 30% tax on gains from cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, crypto remains popular among with Indians, with a recent Chainalysis study showing that India leads the world in crypto adoption.

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