Financial Industry Blog - Kapronasia

Viva Republica’s Toss Bank has been visibly contemplating an initial public offering (IPO) since earlier this year. It is aiming to achieve a valuation of 15 to 20 trillion won (US$11 billion-US$15 billion). Toss is feeling increasingly good about going public because of what it sees as strong fundamentals. It has amassed more than 19.1 million monthly active users, while its loan brokerage, payments, advertising and tax services are performing well, as is its subsidiary Toss Securities.

Hong Kong’s capital markets have had a tough couple of years. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) closed 2023 as the worst performing exchange in the world. HKEX plunged 24%, erasing US$13 billion in market capitalization, according to Bloomberg. Unsurprisingly, IPO activity was tepid in Hong Kong last year, and remained that way up until a flurry of listings in recent months that suggested a turnaround in market sentiment.

With one of the world’s largest unbanked populations, Pakistan is one of Asia’s last major nascent fintech markets. Yet in 2023 and through the first half of 2024, it was mired in a funding slump – not unusual given the broader global trend, but problematic for a country that truly needs more digital banking services to boost financial inclusion. In the 2023 fiscal year, fintech funding in Pakistan fell 80% to just US$20 million while the number of deals decreased 44% to just eight. However, 2024 could turn out to be a better year for funding given rising investor interest.

Ant Group’s global expansion is continuing apace. According to data compiled by the Chinese payments giant, the number of travelers using their home payment apps via Ant’s Alipay+ app tripled from January to September, while spending at food and beverage outlets, attractions and ride sharing/taxis rose by 80%, 50% and 120% respectively.

The last few years have witnessed a rapidly evolving cross-border payment landscape in Asia Pacific. Across the region, financial institutions and FinTechs have made significant headway in areas like central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and real-time payments.

However, several challenges remain that impede further progress. Potential CBDC fragmentation, legacy systems, and rising digital fraud pose difficulties. As 2025 approaches, regulators, financial institutions, and FinTechs must understand three key gaps and address them.

On October 4, Singapore’s Inter-Ministerial Committee announced new anti-money laundering (AML) recommendations. They include data sharing between agencies, flagging and striking off inactive companies, and programs to educate businesses about suspicious activity and increase the likelihood that they report such activity.

For many years, the China payments market was an oligopoly with state-owned UnionPay dominating the cards segment while Alipay and Tenpay together held about 90% of mobile payments. These three companies are still far bigger than any of their competitors, but Beijing has in recent years gradually begun improving market access for foreign firms amid a challenging economic environment. It is against this backdrop that PayPal has been steadily ratcheting up its presence in China, most recently with the launch of a service – PayPal Complete Payments – that allows Chinese merchants to accept foreign credit cards and mobile payments.

The Indian government has long eyed cryptocurrencies warily, viewing them largely as contributing to money-laundering risk and challenging the central bank’s monetary authority. Though India has stopped short of outright banning digital assets – or a de facto ban like what China has – it has nonetheless made investing in them smoothly a challenging process – especially the 30% tax on gains from cryptocurrency. Nevertheless, crypto remains popular among with Indians, with a recent Chainalysis study showing that India leads the world in crypto adoption.

Indonesia’s P2P lending industry has fallen on hard times. After several years of relatively unchecked P2P lending expansion, regulators have decided to crack down on problematic industry players with an eye on heading off catastrophic failures. No doubt China’s experience in the 2010s is instructive for Indonesia, which does not want to see its own retail investors be robbed of their life savings in pyramid or Ponzi schemes.

Nearly six months have passed since the publication of media reports speculating on a forthcoming IPO by Indian B2B payments fintech Pine Labs at a valuation of US$6 billion. One reason for what seems to be relatively slow progress on the company’s plans to go public is that it first needs to complete a change in its domicile from Singapore to India. Increasingly, Indian startups are shifting their domiciles from other nations to India because it is highly unlikely for companies with valuations below US$20 billion to get meaningful coverage from analysts in developed markets, which may dampen institutional investor demand. PhonePe and Groww have already shifted their domiciles to India, while Meesho, Razorpay, Zepto and Udaan have begun the process.

On Oct. 1, Ripple announced it had received in-principle license approval from the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), an important step in the process of gaining a full license in the city. When it gains full approval, Ripple will be able to provide cross-border payment services in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC), a special economic zone. The focus of Ripple on being licensed in Dubai is the latest example of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) growing importance as a fintech hub.

TymeBank is a rising star in Africa as well a key player in the Philippines’ fintech sector. It is one of the few online banks of note to emerge from Africa thus far. TymeBank claims to be one of South Africa’s fastest growing banks and recently reported reaching 10 million customers. While many digital banks highlight rapid customer acquisition, TymeBank appears to be an outlier with its presence in several emerging markets and a strong balance sheet.

Taiwan is grappling with an increasingly serious scam problem, according to a new report that surveyed 25,000 people across the region has found. Conducted jointly by the Global Anti-Scam Alliance, Gogolook and ScamAdviser, a Web site legitimacy checker, the report found that Taiwanese may have lost up to US$7.5 billion over the past 12 months. On average, Taiwanese each lost US$1,940 to scammers, equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2023.

Japan has an ambitious plan to reach net zero by 2050, which includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 46% compared to 2013 levels by 2030. In support of that goal, the Japanese government has rolled out a Green Growth Strategy and created a US$15 billion Green Innovation Fund. An additional important part of Japan’s path to net zero are the world’s first sovereign transition bonds.

South Korean online lender K Bank is preparing for what could be the country’s largest market debut since 2022. After several false starts due to suboptimal market conditions, K Bank this time is committing to go forward with its long-awaited IPO. The listing should happen in late October.

The Hong Kong IPO market, which has been a laggard in recent years, is showing signs of life. Data compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) show a total of 42 companies raised US$7.14 billion via IPOs on the main board of the Hong Kong stock exchange from January to September, up 100% year-on-year and surpassing the total of US$5.9 billion raised in 2023.

India’s United Payments Interface (UPI) has become the country’s premier digital payments rail and is continuing to build ever greater scale. According to PwC, total UPI transaction volume is expected to grow from 131 billion in the 2023-24 fiscal year to 439 billion by 2028–29. UPI now accounts for over 80% of India’s overall retail digital payments and is expected to surpass 90% by 2028-29. Given UPI's success, India has sought to expand its footprint internationally.

Walmart-backed PhonePe is one of India’s most successful fintech startups, yet nearly a decade on from its founding, the company still has no clear plans for an initial public offering (IPO). One reason for the delay may be that a giant multinational retail chain owns most of the company (85%), and is not as eager for an exit as the venture capitalists who typically back Indian startups. In June, Walmart’s executive vice president for corporate affairs, Dan Bartlett, said at the company’s annual shareholder meeting that a PhonePe IPO “is something we're looking at over the next couple of years."

Taiwan has long been one of the most overbanked markets in Asia. Strolling the streets of Taipei, one sees a plethora of physical bank branches. Overall, Taiwan has 37 banks, 21 life insurers and 50 securities brokers for a market of just 23 million people. Despite regulatory pressure for consolidation, there have been very few bank mergers in Taiwan over the past two decades.

Of the major economies in East Asia, Thailand has been among the slowest to introduce digital banks. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has never said much about its decision-making rationale in public, but we reckon the Kingdom’s relatively high banked rate (more than 80%) has something to do with it. The wait is finally over, however. The deadline for submitting an application for a digital bank was September 19, and there only be three licenses awarded.

Brazil’s Nubank is unique among digital banks globally because it is both unusually large in terms of customers and profitable. Other profitable online lenders, such as Korea’s Kakao Bank – which has about 22 million customers – much smaller. Even Revolut is less than half as large as Nubank. However, there is some concern that Nubank’s lending practices are problematic given its rising non-performing loan (NPL) ratio.

Revolut has long had its eye on the India market, where it has sought to carve out a niche in payments before moving into trading, investment and credit. More than three years into the foray, Revolut does not have a lot to show for it, though in April, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) granted the UK fintech in-principle authorization to issue pre-paid instruments (PPI), including prepaid cards and wallets. We understand it took so long in part because of data localization requirements.

In the alternate reality inhabited by crypto bros, most jurisdictions are always on the cusp of a full-throated embrace of digital assets. Case in point: in late August, Tron founder Justin Sun wrote on X, “China unbans crypto. What’s the best meme for this?” Regardless of Sun’s true intentions in this post, Beijing is not only “unbanning” crypto, it is tightening oversight of the industry.

Singapore is continuing to take a measured approach to digital assets as seen by the growing prevalence of stablecoin payments in the city-state. In the second quarter, stablecoin payments reached a new high of US$1 billion in Singapore, according to data from blockchain research firm Chainalysis. With the announcement of stablecoin regulations in August 2023, Singapore  bet that these “safer” cryptocurrencies have staying power and will play an increasingly important role in the future of financial services.

In 2021, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) imposed a three-year moratorium on applications for digital banking licenses so that it would have enough time to monitor the performance of the new online lenders and their impact on the financial system. It will take time for Philippine online banks to get out of the red, and in March, the BSP said that just two of the official digital lenders – which it did not identify – are profitable. It may take five to seven years before the others reach that milestone. Nevertheless, the Philippine central bank is pressing ahead with its plan to allow for more digital banks. From January 1, 2025, four more licensed online lenders will be permitted.

UK fintech unicorn Revolut thinks big. Despite not holding a banking license in its home market until very recently, it has sought to depict itself as a global disruptor of the financial services sector. Long before it turned a profit, Revolut had set up offices across the world. Nothing has been able to slow Revolut down significantly, but the speed at which the company moves also has drawbacks. Its compliance regime has been lacking in the past, and it is now facing a growing problem with scams.

It was inevitable that Hong Kong’s much-hyped cryptocurrency initiative would run into some serious challenges. We are not surprised to learn that the city’s regulators are not satisfied with the compliance level at some “deemed to be licensed” exchanges operating in the city. While demand for digital assets remains strong in many markets, and Hong Kong has a strong foundation as a financial services hub on which it can build, the crypto sector itself remains immature and prone to malfeasance while there is no global consensus on how to manage digital asset flows.

2024 might be remembered as a turning point for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) – the year when interest in them began to significantly wane. In the case of India, while the government seems determined to push forward with the digital rupee, retail users are more circumspect. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) highlights its estimation of 5 million digital rupee users. If we stop to consider that India has more than 1.4 billion people, then less than ½ of 1% of the population is not a particularly strong adoption rate – especially for something that has such strong government backing.

How is it that a digital bank startup expects to become the No. 4 retail lender in Singapore before long? After all, digital banks are, with the occasional exception, better known for losing money than making a profit. Of the four online lenders who received licenses in December 2020, not one is currently profitable. However, Trust Bank, which launched in September 2022, is a different story. Trust Bank is not a traditional digital banking venture but rather an entity created by large incumbent lender Standard Chartered and supermarket chain Fair Price Group.

India’s United Payments Interface (UPI) payments rail has achieved massive success in its domestic market that will be difficult for any future competitor to surpass. According to a new report by PwC, total UPI transaction volume is expected to grow form 131 billion in the 2023-24 fiscal year to 439 billion by 2028–29. UPI now accounts for over 80% of India’s overall retail digital payments in India and is expected to surpass 90% by 2028-29. Given UPI's success, India has sought to expand its footprint internationally and in the past few years it has become available in a number of countries from the United Arab Emirates and Bhutan to the UK and France. Yet questions remain about whether UPI can serve as a foundational platform for digital payments outside of India.

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