India Payments Research

In December 2021, Razorpay became India’s most valuable private fintech as it reached a valuation of US$7.5 billion, more than double the US$3 billion milestone it hit last April. Razorpay’s US$375 million Series F financing round raised more than all of its previous rounds combined. By eschewing India’s hyper-competitive retail payments market – dominated by the likes of Google Pay and PhonePe, with Paytm a distant third – Razorpay can best capitalize on opportunities in the fast-growing merchant payments segment.

India’s buy now, pay later (BNPL) market had a cracking 2021 and is charging full speed ahead into 2022. According to RazorPay’s The Covid Era of Rising Fintech report, the India BNPL market grew more than 637% in 2021, even better than 2020’s 569% growth. For its part, India BNPL firm ZestMoney found in a recent survey that BNPL is the top payment option for Indian consumers across all age groups – though most users of the service in subcontinent are ages 23-26. ZestMoney said that its BNPL transactions rose 300% annually in 2021.

India’s buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector is red hot and expected to grow exponentially over the next few years. India is certainly not the first country to experience a BNPL surge and it is tempting to say that we have seen this movie before, and that tough regulation is on the way that will curb BNPL’s growth as in Australia and the UK. But that may not be the case in India given the subcontinent’s low level of credit card penetration and the ability for BNPL to play a genuine financial inclusion role in the economy.

United Payments Interface (UPI), the National Payments Corporation of India’s (NPCI) flagship payments platform, had another stellar month in July. According to NPCI data, UPI processed a record 3.24 billion transactions in July, up 15.7% from June, while in terms of value the payments platform processed transactions worth Rs 6.06 trillion, up 10.76% from a month earlier.

India’s remittances market was supposed to contract 9% in 2020 per a World Bank forecast. It was a reasonable prediction given the turmoil wrought by the coronavirus pandemic on public health and the global economy. Yet the market was much more resilient than expected. Data from the World Bank show that remittances to India fell just 0.2% in 2020 to US$83 billion.

The United Payments Interface (UPI) has become a kingmaker in India fintech. The real-time payment system owned by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) has grown exponentially since its inception in 2016, with varying estimates of its overall share of India’s payments market. PwC reckons that UPI could reach a 59% share of Indian digital payments by 2024-25, while Indian tech media site Inc42 says that UPI already has a 73% share of the market, up from just 9% in 2018.

If there is one thing Revolut excels at, it is growth. It would be hard to find another neobank with as many accounts in as many different markets. All that growth is expensive, as seen in the £107 million Revolut lost in FY 2019, which it attributed to a hiring spree. Whether the UK’s most valuable fintech startup is any closer to profitability is an open question. What we do know is that it is eyeing expansion across Asia in 2021-22, with India the first stop. 

Amazon may be the world's biggest e-commerce firm and a major player in India's online shopping market, but that has not translated into digital payments dominance in the subcontinent. In fact, Amazon's share of the Indian payments market is paltry compared to Google Pay, Walmart backed-Phone Pe and Alibaba-backed Paytm. But with India's payments market expected to grow more than 300% to Rs 7,092 lakh crore by 2025, Amazon sees plenty of room to boost its market share and eventually expand into more lucrative fintech segments.

Paytm is India's most valuable tech startup and largest fintech. The company says it processed 1.2 billion transactions in January, more than its rivals Google and PhonePe that are dominant on the UPI platform. It claims to serve more than 17 million merchants. Yet Paytm is still losing money after more than a decade, burning cash faster than it can earn revenue. That must change soon if the SoftBank-backed firm expects a successful IPO in 2022.

India's payments market is more competitive than ever. While Walmart-backed PhonePe and Google Pay remain dominant for now, WhatsApp Pay may eventually chip away at their market share. With 400 million users of its messaging app in India, the Facebook-owned company could potentially channel the network effect to its advantage. But WhatsApp could be tripped up by fallout over its updated data privacy policy. 

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