China Banking Research

According to the latest figures from the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), Chinese commercial banks’ accumulated net profits reached 1.4 Triliion RMB in 2013, up 179.4 Billion RMB from 2012. However, the growth rate of net profits has been decreasing in recent years. In 2011, profits grew 36.33%, then dropped dramatically to 18.96% in 2012, and again in 2013 to 14.48%.

Research shows that the decreasing trend of Chinese commercial banks’ profitability growth rate seems to be in line with China’ declining GDP growth rate, shown in the chart below. It reflects that with the acceleration of interest rate reform and the influence from internet finance, China’s commercial banks profit margin faces continuing pressure.

Chinese Bank Profitability struggles

Not satisfied with just taking deposits from banks, online finance platforms are facing more competition from each other.

Thank you to everyone who attended the Top-10 China Financial Technology trends webinar just over a week ago.

The sheer size of China's population and geography means that you get some pretty amazing statistics out of it. Couple that with increasing internet and mobile penetration and you have some pretty sizable numbers.

For decades, China has been known as the imitator and not the innovator. The argument goes that the West came up with social networking, mobile payments, group-buying, etc. and China imitated it, sometimes better, sometimes worse. C2C – copy to China. R&D – rob and duplicate. There are numerous terms to describe it. 

After 18 years of economic development, China’s Tier 2 Banks, mainly city commercial banks, are growing to fill a gap in-between state-owned banks, and rural commercial banks. As part of their growth, many city commercial banks are attempting to expand their branches in other regions, however, the Chinese Banking Regulatory Committee (CBRC) regulations are, in certain cases, holding them back.

The recent tight regulation regarding supra-regional city commercial banks is largely the result of increasing internal fraud cases in city commercial banks such as Qilu Bank and Hankou Bank. The good news is that the CBRC is not prohibiting city commercial banks from expanding supra-regionally. Instead, the approval process is just longer and the standard of regulatory evaluation indicators such as asset scale, capital adequacy ratio, profit margin, and non-performing loan ratios are higher than before. In this case, if city commercial banks attempt to expand outlets in other regions, they need to enhance their internal control and risk management abilities above the required standard.

Because the asset scale and business model vary based on the local economies in each city, the evaluation regulation will be different. If the investment in other regions is excessive, the CBRC will require a higher capital adequacy ratio; if the risk management does not match the fast growing asset scale, the CBRC will restrict the expansion of these city commercial banks. Thus, regulators support supra-regional expansion if the tier 2 banks meet the entire set of regulatory requirements.

China’s tier two banks are some of the more dynamic banks in China in terms of business models and innovation – they have had to be in order to compete with their larger counterparts that typically have much larger deposit bases and distribution networks.

The tier-2 banks are still focused on expanding their asset base and while supra-regional expansion will help them accomplish this, it is not the ultimate goal of the banks, at least not in the near future. The regulations do serve a valuable purpose to ensure that banks’ expansion is based on quality assets and business practices.  

 

 

As fixed interest rates in China start to loosen up, banks' bottom lines are starting to feel the pressure. According to the latest figures from China major banks’ annual reports, the net profits of China Mingsheng Banking Corp.(Minsheng), Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.,(ICBC), Bank of China Ltd. (BOC) and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) in the third quarter 2013 shrank on a YOY base. 

As shown in the graph below, the net profits growth rate of Minsheng, a relatively smaller bank, dropped dramatically almost 25% comparing with the same period last year, likely due to its relatively large interbank business, which was heavily affected by high interest rates in the middle of June. The high interest rates in China also had a big impact on ICBC. The banks' profitability growth rate dropped to around 7.5%.

Chinese Bank Profitability - Q3 2013

 

To a large extent, Asian banks are in a somewhat enviable position. China is certainly the economic giant of the region, and if China’s economy slows, it does have knock-on effects, yet, the economies of individual countries in Asia, while interdependent, often expand and contract quite independently. This can mean a bank facing slower growth in Indonesia, might look to the Philippines or Malaysia for expansion. 

Kapronasia attended the Battle of Quants Shanghai event on Nov. 13, 2013 in the newly launched Hongkou hedge fund park in Shanghai, China. There were two main topics that we discussed at the event: Chinese traders’ demands for trading platforms and key success factors for China's further economic reform.

Over the past 3 years, online banking in Asia has been growing rapidly. A recent survey indicates that the usage of Internet banking has increased by 28% across Asia in the past five years, and the frequency of online banking usage actually surpassed branch banking in 2012, meaning that people in Asia access their account more online today than they do in person.

In China, there are over 650 million registered online banking customers in the 11 listed Chinese banks, and the combined online transaction volume represents over 60% of total transactions. Systems have matured to keep pace; not only do they provide scalability to deal with the increased transaction volume, but offer increased functionality for online banking in China customers.

In the densely populated areas like Singapore, Taiwan, and India, internet banking makes doing your banking less time consuming. Ten years ago, you may have had to wait hours in your bank to do simple transactions; today, customers can pay bills, transfer money, and even purchase investment products online rather than waiting in a crowded line.

China's Online Banking Customers

 

Source: Cebnet, 2013

Although internet banking usage in Asia is high overall, individual countries have varied levels of online banking development. Among all the Asian countries, online banking penetration is particularly low in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, although there are signs of growth.

Online banking usage has started to grow rapidly in Indonesia since 2010, yet, of the 55 million Internet users, about 25% of the population, only 7% of these internet users actually do online banking, which indicates online banking is still relatively underdeveloped in Indonesia. Enhancements in the mobile online banking platforms including better security and ease of use, may help the industry attract more users and increase market penetration.

With the rapid modernization of companies, infrastructure and overall economies in Asia, Online banking in Asiawill continually show a steady growing trend in the next few years because it plays an important role by sharing the operational burden from branches, and provides more efficient service for customers. The current growing trend also predicts that online banking is slowly making branches less important, and its popularity will increase dramatically in the near future in Asia.

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