Asia Banking Research
Assessing the changing investment strategy of Temasek
The Singaporean sovereign wealth fund Temasek has long been one of the largest institutional investors in China, reflecting the close economic ties between the city-state and the world’s second largest economy. As recently as 2020, China accounted for 29% of Temasek’s portfolio. However, today Temasek’s investments in China have fallen to just 19% of its portfolio, below the U.S. at 22% and Singapore at 27%.
Will GXS Bank reach its profitability target?
Looking at the stock price of Singaporean platform company Grab, one wonders what investors truly think about this company’s prospects. Since its Dec. 2021 Nasdaq debut in a SPAC merger, Grab has lost 74% of its market value. The stock’s 52-week high is just US$3.88. We suspect that investors are concerned about the viability of Grab’s super app business strategy – which may struggle to pivot away from a focus on growth – even if individual units of the company are doing well. Grab does seem confident about its fintech business though and foresees profitability for its Singaporean digital bank before too long.
Who needs more digital banks in Southeast Asia? If you asked us, we would say not too many countries do. Certainly not Singapore, probably not Malaysia or Thailand, and even though Indonesia is a huge market, it already has a lot of online lenders.
ANEXT Bank makes modest progress
What to make of ANEXT Bank? On the one hand, Ant Group has been focused for years now on expanding its presence in Southeast Asia. Its Singapore digital bank, which provides multi-currency business accounts, unsecured financing with flexible repayment options, and fixed deposit accounts to SMEs, is a key part of that expansion effort. And Ant has continuously injected large amounts of capital into ANEXT. On the other, from a financial standpoint, ANEXT’s performance remains underwhelming, and it is unclear how large the company’s addressable market is in Singapore.
Kakao’s fintech business may be in trouble
Kakao Bank has long proven skeptics of digital banks wrong. It has been profitable since 2019 and is now set to expand in Southeast Asia. There is just one problem: Its parent company’s founder Kim Beom-su was arrested on July 23. He has been accused of manipulating stocks during Kakao’s acquisition of the K-Pop agency SM Entertainment last year.
Can Australia revive its open banking initiative?
We remember when Australia first kicked off its open banking initiative, known as the “consumer data right,” with much fanfare five years ago. The program was supposed to increase the quality of banking services to consumers by giving them access – in theory – to more of a customized experience in which they could pick and choose which services they wanted from which providers. They only had to agree to let their data be shared with different banks. However, a recent report by the Australia Banking Association (ABA) found that just 0.3% of bank customers are using the program, suggesting that it has been a failure and that Australia needs to reimagine its approach to open banking.
MariBank just lost US$38.6 million
Singapore’s digital banks have been underwhelming in their first few years of operation, though the likely raising of a deposit cap in July 2023 has benefited Sea’s MariBank and Grab-Singtel’s GXS Bank. It was always a risky endeavor to bet on the retail segment given how well served it already is in the city-state, but there is no turning back now for Singapore’s preeminent platform companies. The question is whether MariBank’s big loss in 2023 should be viewed as a glass half empty or half full.
Singapore widens campaign against financial crime
The banking system in Singapore has been under greater scrutiny ever since a few banks operating in the city were ensnared in Malaysia’s massive 1MDB scandal. There is an inherent contradiction that all financial hubs face when they try to attract the ultra-wealthy and their assets, but also want to ensure the highest degree of compliance. Inevitably, some clients have something to hide. When there is possible unusual activity, banks have to make the call whether it is necessary to flag the transactions and report them. Thus it is not surprising that Singapore said in a new report that its banking sector poses the highest money laundering risks following a scandal involving more than S$3 billion (US$2.2 billion) in illicit assets.
Is WeLab Bank defying the odds?
It is hard to believe that more than five years have passed since Hong Kong first approved virtual banks. The disruption that had been forecast has not come to pass and we wonder how much longer some of the online lenders will endure. Those backed by large public companies – which have to explain to investors why they are supporting unprofitable endeavors – could be the first to throw in the towel. That said, Hong Kong-based WeLab Bank, which is backed by billionaire Li Ka-shing, has seemingly defied the odds thus far with its performance. It says it is on a clear path to profitability and is expanding strategically in Southeast Asia.
Not so long ago, when Hong Kong was struggling with the impact of civil unrest and strict Covid-19 controls, other cities in Asia sensed an opportunity to bolster their respective financial center credentials. Not Singapore, which is already an established Asian financial center – and has grown in recent years – but cities such as Tokyo and Taipei.
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Here comes Grab and Kakao-backed Superbank
Indonesia has no shortage of digital banks, but it is also a huge market with a significant population that has limited access to formal financial services. It is a key market for Southeast Asian platform companies as well. While Grab has digital banking licenses for Singapore and Malaysia, Indonesia is where it has the best opportunity to prove the skeptics wrong.
Across Asia Pacific, criminals are using cryptocurrency to fund increasingly nefarious schemes. While early crime involving digital assets tended to target crypto exchanges themselves, the most infamous being the 880,000 Bitcoin stolen from Japan’s Mt. Gox between 2011 and 2014 now worth $45 billion – today digital assets are linked to money laundering, large-scale scams and funding of illegal arms programs. Crypto proponents usually insist that proper regulation can do much to mitigate this problem. Though regulation can boost investor protection and establish rules of the road, we believe that decentralized virtual currencies’ inherent nature means that potential for abuse will remain high. Regulators in some major jurisdictions in the region have come to similar conclusions and are acting accordingly.
Singapore doubles down on green finance initiatives
Singapore has become one of Asia’s most important green finance centers, which is well exemplified by its third sale of green bonds in late May. The S$6 billion order book for the city-state’s third sale of green bonds was 2.45 times the amount offered to institutional investors. In addition, the offering of S$2.5 billion in bonds reached the maximum of the S$2.1 billion to S$2.5 billion range provided by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). The Singapore government has said there there is a pipeline of up to S$35 billion in sovereign and public-sector green bonds that will be issued by 2030.
South Korea prepares for a fourth digital bank
With three of Asia’s most successful digital banks, South Korea is now considering adding a fourth. Though the country was well banked before the arrival of the digital challengers, Kakao Bank, K Bank and Toss Bank have all found a way to build market share rapidly without burning an inordinate amount of cash. The former two are profitable, while the latter should reach that milestone soon. Consumer interest in digital banks in Korea is such that the market can very likely support a fourth online lender.