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Non-performing
loans (NPLs) have been the monkey on the back of Chinese banks for
years. Previous to 2001, NPL rates weren’t as big of a concern for the
banks as they were all fully state-owned and competition was weak.
China entering the WTO changed that. As the industry started to open
up, competition increased and banks considered public listings.
Cleaning up their low-quality balance sheets was one of the first steps
on the road to IPO.
Some of the banks gradually lowered
their NPL rate through better lending practices, but the majority
received cash-injections from the government which allowed them to
shore up their balance sheets and bring their NPL rates down into the
mid-single digits.
In the wake of the Chinese earthquake, the
Chinese government has ordered banks to write off what will be billion
dollars in debt for assets that were destroyed in the May 12th
earthquake. It's a good way for the government to support the people,
but it also has some benefits for the banks.
Estimates are
that the earthquake destroyed about 3 million homes and damaged another
14 million. Although the exact dollar amount of the relief isn’t yet
clear, it is very likely that some of those loans likely would have
been China’s version of ‘subprime’ and would not have been fully
repaid. So the debt relief for the Sichuan earthquake victims will
certainly help them get started on their new life, but it will also
help lower the banks' outstanding NPLs.
One of the primary
beneficiaries is the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) who had over
$1.2B in quake related losses. Compare this to the Bank of China, who
had around $25M. ABC has had tremendous NPL issues in the past largely
down to the fact that much of its business is outside of the major
cities, including rural Sichuan, where the credit quality tends to be
pooer. Simple capital injections weren’t enough to get their NPLs under
control. A blanket write-off will certainly help their financial
position.
There would likely have been a large % of the
loans in Sichuan that would have been repaid, so by writing off all of
the debt, both good and bad, some banks will lose some profits.
However, the silver lining for China is essentially being able to
clean-up NPLs without drawing much international attention as it's all
part of rebuilding after the disaster.
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