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This week Singapore Airlines (SIA) bought a ~16% stake in
China Eastern, a domestic Chinese airline, which is in the worst financial
condition of the big three Chinese carriers. This by itself is groundbreaking
news as it’s the first foreign investment in a domestic Chinese airline, but
when you consider the recent takeover bid for Qantas in Australia and indeed SIA’s
own failed bid for takeoff slots in Australia, it becomes even more interesting
as a comparison of markets and their openness to change.
If you recall, in
November 2006, a consortium including PG Capital LLP and Macquarie Bank
approached Qantas with a buyout offer. The consortium encountered an
incredible amount of government scrutiny amid a political storm over
the fate of the airline. Over the ensuing 6 months, the deal went
through numerous changes and rebuttals, ultimately failing for the last
time earlier this year.
Looking back further, in February
2006, SIA requested access for the Sydney to US pacific flight route;
i.e. to be able to fly directly from Sydney to the US without a stop in
Singapore. Qantas claimed that SIA had little to offer and there was no
lack of capacity on the trans-Pacific route. The Australia government
said the benefits of allowing SIA on the route would be very small, and
that Virgin Blue (and possibly Air Canada) would provide competition
for Qantas. The bid failed.
Now, albeit these are all
slightly different situations, they draw an interesting comparison of
the investment environments in China and Australia and the government’s
openness/flexibility to change.
China still has, at least in
name, a communist government that understands that China needs foreign
investment and isn’t afraid of it in circumstances where it can truly
help the country. The China Eastern investment is a great example; you
can be sure that within 5 years, China Eastern won’t be at the bottom
anymore.
In the case of Australia, a buyout of Qantas or direct
SIA flights would have increased competition there too and perhaps
changed the international market as much as the intro of discount
airlines changed the domestic market, but protectionism prevented it.
This is of course not to say that China doesn't have protectionist
measures of its own, as it very clearly does, but just that it's just a
bit smarter about how it uses them.
Investment in the Chinese
banking industry is driving a similar change. The Chinese government
recognises that they need a certain amount of foreign expertise to
really kick-start the banking industry. Luckily for them, foreign banks
see the 1 billion customers in China and are more than happy to invest
money and time in JVs to make this happen. Foreign banks are bringing
talent and money to the table and helping to shake up a massive
industry that, as it becomes more liberalised, will be even more
competitive.
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